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[보고서] 오산시 재정진단 연구용역

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[보고서] 오산시 재정진단 연구용역

admin | 수, 2020/03/11- 01:39

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연구요약 ··········································································································································1

I. 연구 개요 ····································································································································25
1. 연구 개요 ···································································································································25
1) 연구 범위 ···································································································································25
2) 용역 기간 ·································································································································25
2. 연구 배경 ···································································································································26
3. 연구 내용 ···································································································································27

II. 오산시 재정환경 전망 분석 ···································································································28
1. 대내외 경제환경 ·····················································································································28
1) 세계 경제전망 ···························································································································28
2) 국내 경제 상황 ·························································································································31
2. 중앙정부 재정운용방향 ···········································································································33
1) 2020년 중앙정부 정책기조 ·····································································································33
(1) 중앙정부 2020년도 예산 편성 기조 ····················································································33
(3) 2020년 중앙정부 분야별 투자방향 ····················································································50
(4) 분야별 재원 배분 ····················································································································51
2) 지방자치관련 국가정책방향 검토 ·························································································52
(1) 지방자치법 전부개정 ··············································································································52
(2) 재정분권 관련 중장기 지방재정 정책 변화 ····································································53
(3) 재정 집행 강화 및 잉여금 축소 ··························································································54
3) 오산시 재정운용전략에 대한 시사점 ···················································································57
3. 경기도 재정운용방향 ···············································································································58
1) 경기도 민선7기 시정방향 ·······································································································58
(1) 5대 목표 16대 전략 ················································································································58
(2) 경기도 민선7기 공약 실천과제 및 예산 ············································································59
2) 경기도 2020년 예산 편성 방향 ·····························································································60

(1) 경기도 2020년 예산 개요 ······································································································60
(2) 경기도 2020년 예산 특징 ······································································································61
4. 오산시 경제 환경 및 재정운용 전망 ···················································································63
1) 오산시 행정 여건 ·····················································································································63
(1) 기본 현황 ··································································································································63
(2) 주요 시정 지표 ························································································································64
(1) 오산시 재정운용 기본방향 ····································································································73
(2) 주요 분야별 예산 편성 방향 ································································································75
(3) 재원 배분 방향 ························································································································76
3) 세입 여건 전망 ·························································································································77
(1) 세입여건 ····································································································································77
(2) 세입실적 및 세수전망 ············································································································78
(3) 연도별 지방세 부담액 ············································································································78
(4) 2013~2017년 지방세 징수실적 ······························································································79
4) 세출 여건 전망 ·························································································································80
5) 분야별 정책방향 및 투자계획 ·······························································································82

III. 오산시 재정운용 성과진단 ····································································································93
1. 오산시 세입 현황 분석 ···········································································································93
1) 결산상 세입규모 ·······················································································································93
2) 오산시 재정자립도 및 재정자주도 현황 ·············································································96
3) 재원별 세입현황 ·······················································································································99
(1) 재원별 세입 결산 규모 및 비중 추이 ················································································99
(2) 오산시 세목별 수입액 ········································································································100
4) 세입 체납액 현황 분석 ·········································································································102
(1) 타 지자체 대비 오산시 체납액 현황 ··············································································102
(2) 체납 누계액 및 징수 현황 ································································································106
(3) 지방세 체납액 현황 ··············································································································108
(4) 세외수입 체납액 현황 ··········································································································110
(5) 2019년 오산시 세외수입 운영실적 분석·진단 ······························································113
(6) 2018년 오산시 세외수입 운영실적 분석·진단 ······························································116
(7) 세외수입 확충 방안 ··············································································································119

2. 오산시 세출 현황 분석 ·········································································································122
1) 오산시 세출 결산 현황 ·······································································································122
(1) 2018년 오산시 세출결산 규모 ····························································································122
(2) 최근 5년 간 오산시 세출 규모 추이 ················································································123
2) 오산시 일반회계 세출 분야별 분석 ···················································································124
(1) 일반회계 분야별 세출 규모 및 비중 추이 ······································································124
(2) 분야별 세출 예산 편성 적정성 진단 및 조정 방향 ······················································126
(3) 2019년 세출 예산 중 자체예산 비중 ················································································128
(4) 주민 1인당 세출예산액 순위 ······························································································130
3) 특별회계 세출 분석 ···············································································································131
(1) 오산시 2018년 특별회계 규모 및 비중 추이 ··································································131
4) 2018년 오산시 집행 현황 ·····································································································133
(1) 일반회계 집행 현황 ··············································································································133
(2) 특별회계 집행 현황 ··············································································································135
5) 오산시 지역통합재정통계 ·····································································································138

IV. 재정운용지표 분석 ···············································································································139
1. 지방재정분석 ···························································································································139
1) 지방재정분석 개요 ·················································································································139
2) 2019년 오산시 재정분석 결과 ·····························································································141
(1) 오산시 재정분석 결과 개괄 ································································································141
(2) 오산시 재정분석지표 분야별 결과 개요 ··········································································144
(3) 오산시 재정분석 결과 유사단체 비교 ··············································································147
(4) 6개 중요 지표 분석 ············································································································148
3) 지표 상세 분석 ·······················································································································151
(1) 재정건전성 지표 ····················································································································151
(2) 재정효율성 지표 ····················································································································158
2. 세입세출관리지표 분석 ·········································································································174
1) 세입 관리지표 분석 ···············································································································174
(1) 미수납액 분석 ························································································································174
2) 세출 관리지표 분석 ···············································································································176
(1) 오산시 잉여금 현황 ··············································································································176

(2) 오산시 이월액 현황 ··············································································································180
(3) 보조금 반납금 현황 ··············································································································186
(4) 순세계잉여금 현황 ················································································································188
(5) 잉여금 발생의 원인 및 문제점 ··························································································193
(6) 잉여금 해소 방안 ··················································································································196

V. 오산시 세입 확충 전략 ········································································································197
1. 세입 추계 현실화 ···················································································································197
1) 예산상 세입과 결산상 세입 비교 ·····················································································197
(1) 결산상 세입과 예산상 세입 현황 ······················································································197
(2) 2020~2024년 오산시 세입추계 총괄 ················································································199
2. 지방교부세 확보 ·····················································································································200
1) 지방교부세의 개요 ·················································································································200
(1) 지방교부세 개요 ····················································································································200
(2) 지방교부세의 검사 및 시정 ································································································202
(3) 지방교부세의 교부 ················································································································203
2) 보통교부세의 산정 및 교부 ·································································································204
(1) 보통교부세의 산정 ················································································································204
(2) 보통교부세의 교부 ··············································································································205
(3) 최근 3년 간 보통교부세 산정 시 변화된 주요 내용 ····················································207
3) 중앙정부 지방재정 운영 현황 ···························································································209
(1) 2020년 지방재정 운영방향 및 지방재정 운영일정 개편 ··············································209
(2) 2020년 지방교부세 산정방향 ····························································································211
4) 2021년 교부세 산정 방향 및 대응 방안 ···········································································213
(1) 교부세 산정 방향 ··················································································································213
(2) 교부세 확보를 위한 오산시의 대응 방안 ········································································217
3. 국도비 보조사업 현황 분석 및 확보 방안 ·····································································218
1) 오산시 공모 현황 ···················································································································218
2) 오산시 공모사업 대응 전략 ·································································································229
(1) 중앙정부 지방재정운용방향 정책 및 지표 관리 ····························································229
(2) 오산시 사회조사 결과를 통한 시민 수요 반영 ····························································230
(3) 고용노동부 공모사업 현황 ··································································································231

(4) 보건복지부 공모사업 현황 ··································································································234
(5) 문화체육관광부 공모사업 현황 ··························································································242
(6) 경기도 문화관광 공모사업 현황 ························································································250

VI. 오산시 세출 효율화 방안 ···································································································258
1. 이월 및 불용 관리 ·················································································································258
1) 이월 및 불용의 발생 원인 ···································································································258
2) 오산시 집행 및 이월 현황 분석 ·························································································260
3) 이월 및 불용의 문제점 ·········································································································268
4) 이월 및 불용 억제 방안 ·····································································································270
(1) 재정안정화기금 신설 ············································································································270
(2) 결산 과정 강화 ······················································································································275
(3) 계속비 이월 근절 ················································································································275
(4) 재정건전팀 신설 및 예산 조기집행 관리 ········································································275
(5) 통합재정관리시스템 구축 및 활용 ····················································································276
2. 시책일몰제 시행 ·····················································································································280
1) 시책일몰제의 필요성 ·············································································································280
2) 시책일몰제를 시행하는 타 지자체 사례 ···········································································281
3. 재정사업 평가의 내실화 ·······································································································282
4. 세출 자금 집중 관리 ···········································································································283
1) 오산시 세출 자금 집중 관리 방안 ·····················································································283
2) 타 지자체 사례 ·······················································································································283

VII. 건전재정을 위한 재정 운영 기법 및 방향 ····································································284
1. 재정분권 대응 방안 ···············································································································284
1) 지방재정 4대 추진전략 ·········································································································284
2) 재정분권 후속조치 방안 ·······································································································285
2. 건전재정팀 신설 및 운영 ···································································································286
1) 타 지방자치단체의 건전재정팀 운영 사례 ·······································································286
2) 오산시 건전재정팀 도입 및 운영 방안 ·············································································287
3. 기금 및 특별회계 여유재원의 연기금투자풀 위탁 운용 ···············································288
1) 오산시 기금 운용 현황 ·········································································································288

2) 중앙정부의 기금 운용 현황 ·······························································································290
3) 중앙정부 연기금투자풀 위탁 현황 ···················································································291
3) 오산시 여유재원 운용 개선 방안 ·······················································································292
4. 주민참여예산사업 효과성 확대를 위한 현황 분석 방안 ···············································294
1) 사업 분석 및 효과성 평가 시급 ·······················································································294
2) 타 지자체 사례 ·······················································································································295

VIII. 결론 ·······································································································································301
1. 결론 ···········································································································································301
2. 성과 및 한계 ···························································································································301

 

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대우조선해양 도산시 56조 손실 추계액 사실상 ‘셀프 추정’

해당 보고서와 관련하여 산업은행과 금융위의 인지 여부, 인지 시점, 활용 여부와 활용 정도 등에 관한 정밀조사 필요
3/23 발표예정 금융위의 대우조선해양 구조조정방안의 진실성 전면 재검토해야

 

오늘(3/21), 헤럴드경제는 “대우조선해양의 도산시 직접적 손해액이 약 56조원에 달한다는 손실추계액이 대우조선해양의 사실상 셀프 추정의 결과였다”고 단독보도했다(https://goo.gl/hVC3r9). 이 보도에 따르면 대우조선해양은 이 회사의 대표이사인 정성립 사장이 이사장으로 활동하는 학교법인 세영학원 소속의 거제대학 산학협력단을 통해 이 대학의 이모 교수에게 의뢰하여 ‘대우조선 도산으로 인한 국가경제적 손실 규모’ 보고서를 작성했다는 것이다. 대우조선해양 도산시 국가경제에 미치는 손실이 거제대 산학협력단의 추산에 따르면 약 56조원에 달한다는 보도는 이미 존재했다(https://goo.gl/GZ33AE). 그러나 이 용역의 의뢰자가 채무자인 대우조선해양이고, 정성립 대우조선해양 대표이사가 거제대가 속한 학교법인 세영학원의 이사장이라는 점은 이번에 처음 드러난 것이다. 56조원의 손실 주장이 객관성을 갖지 못하게 된 결정적인 이유가 바로 여기에 있다. 한편 국민의당 김관영 의원은 오늘자 국민의당 원내 대책회의에서 “어제 금융위원회 부위원장이 국회에 (대우조선해양 파산 시 57조원 피해와) 관련한 내용을 보고하러 왔다”며 “사실상 정부가 정한 4조3000억원의 공적자금 투입을 받아들이라는 것”이라고 말했다(https://goo.gl/mebGuD). 묘한 우연의 일치가 아닐 수 없다.

   

채무기업이 자신의 재무적 상황을 진단하고, 이를 근거로 채권자와 정부를 설득하기 위해 용역보고서를 준비할 수는 있다. 문제는 산업은행 등 채권단과 금융위원회(이하 ‘금융위’)의 태도다. 채권단과 금융위가 과연 이 보고서의 존재를 알고 있었는지, 알았다면 언제 알았는지, 또 이 보고서에 등장하는 손실 추계 액수가 산업은행이나 금융위의 자체적 손실액 추계에 얼마나 영향을 미쳤는지 등은 대우조선해양에 막대한 공적 자금이 이미 투입된 상황이라는 점에서 국민적 관심사가 아닐 수 없다. 참여연대 경제금융센터(소장 대행: 김성진 변호사)는 거제대학 산학협력단의 보고서와 관련하여 산업은행과 금융위의 인지 여부, 인지 시점, 활용 여부와 활용 정도 등에 관해 국회 정무위가 철저히 조사하여 만에 하나라도 금융위가 국민을 상대로 신뢰하기 어려운 숫자를 이용하여 대우조선해양에 대한 자금 지원을 압박하는 일이 없도록 할 것을 촉구한다.  

 

 

앞에서 인용한 이데일리의 2017.03.16.자 기사(https://goo.gl/GZ33AE)에 따르면 거제대 산학협력단의 보고서의 손실추계 기준시점은 2016년 9월말로 알려졌다. 따라서 이 보고서의 최종 완료 시점은 작년 하반기 정도로 추정된다. 문제는 이 보고서가 산업은행과 금융위에 전달되었는지, 또 전달되었다면 그 시점은 언제인지 하는 점이다. 이 사실이 중요한 이유는 금융위가 작년 12월에 대우조선해양의 증자와 관련하여 땜질식 처방을 한 적이 있기 때문이다. 주지하듯이 금융위는 대우조선해양의 재무건전성 악화가 심해져서 상장 폐지 위험에 처하자, 지난 2016년 12월 29일 산업은행의 출자전환과 수출입은행의 영구채 매입 등 땜질식 처방을 통해 상황을 모면했기 때문이다(https://goo.gl/tJOQia). 

   

만일 이 보고서가 작년말 부근의 어느 시점에서 완성되었고, 그 내용이 객관적이고 정확한 것이라면 대우조선해양이 이 보고서를 상장폐지 방어와 자본확충 필요성을 입증하기 위해 사용하지 않았으리라고 상정하기란 대단히 어렵다. 만일 채권단 또는 금융위가 작년 하반기 어느 시점에 이 보고서의 결론을 파악하고 있었다면, 왜 작년 말에는 56조원의 손실 추계를 손에 받아 들고도 출자전환과 영구채 발행으로 ‘땜질 처방’을 했으면서, 지금 새 정부가 출범하기 두 달도 안 된 시점에서는 거의 동액의 손실 추계가 ‘본격적 구조조정 자금의 신규 투입’을 정당화하는 논거가 되는지 도무지 납득할 수 없다. 이 보고서의 작성 경위와 보고 시점 및 활용 정도에 대한 국회 정무위의 면밀한 진상 조사가 필요한 이유가 바로 여기에 있다.

 

 

상황을 반대로 가정하여, 금융위가 작년말까지는 이런 내용을 전혀 알지 못했고 올해 들어 뒤늦게 손실액 추계에 나서서 비로소 국민경제상 손실액이 57조원에 달한다는 점을 새삼 깨달았다고 해도 문제는 계속 남아 있다. 왜냐하면 금융위는 정확한 비용-편익 분석도 없이 작년 말에 땜질식 처방을 한 것이 되기 때문이다. 현재 금융위는 당장 대규모 신규 공적 자금을 투입해야 하는 이유로 57조원의 손실 이외에 유동성 부족이 현재화되는 상황에서 구조조정 지연은 추가부실 확대, ‘4월 위기설’ 등 불안심리 확산 등 부작용이 우려된다는 논리를 펼치는 듯하다. 그러나 그런 상황은 대통령 탄핵이 한창 진행 중이고 상장폐지 가능성이 거론되는 작년말에도 사실상 동일했다. 따라서 현재 금융위가 펼치는 논리대로라면 작년말의 시점에서 본격적인 비용-편익 분석을 하고 구조조정의 방향을 재평가했어야 한다.

 

 

이런 정황을 고려할 때, 우리는 금융위가 이 보고서의 결론을 활용하고 있건, 아니건 간에 그 어떤 논리도 작년말의 땜질 처방과 최근의 대규모 신규자금 투입 불가피론을 동시에 정당화할 수 없다는 데 주목한다. 그리고 이런 논리적 부정합성은 자연스럽게 금융위가 대통령 선거를 앞두고 대규모로 신규 공적 자금을 투입하려고 하는 진정한 이유에 대한 의심을 가지게 한다. 주지하듯이 금융위는 지난 2015년의 서별관회의, 작년 여름의 자본확충펀드 등을 거치면서 일관되게 변칙적이고 음성적인 방식으로 대우조선해양에 자금을 지원하거나 그런 방향을 추구해 왔다. 그 이면에 대우조선해양의 주요주주로서 주식가치를 증발시켜 국유재산을 훼손한 금융위의 직접적 책임과, 대우조선해양의 최대 이해관계자라 할 수 있는 산업은행에 대한 감독기관으로서의 감독 부실 책임을 모면하려는 불순한 의도가 있는 것은 아닌지 의심할 수밖에 없다. 참여연대가 대우조선해양의 생사 문제를 차기 정부로 이관하는 것을 주장하는 이유가 바로 여기에 있다. 대우조선해양의 생사 문제는 이제까지 있었던 각종 변칙적, 음성적 행위들의 실상과 의도가 낱낱이 드러나고, 대우조선해양의 재산상황과 사업전망 및 국민경제에 미치는 진정한 영향이 정확히 평가된 이후에 가장 신속하고 효율적인 방식으로 처리되는 것이 마땅하다. 

 

 

이번 거제대 산학협력단 보고서의 작성 경위는 대우조선해양에 대한 채권단과 금융위의 의사결정이 아직도 대단히 불투명한 상황 속에서 이루어지고 있을 개연성을 여실히 보여 주었다. 참여연대 경제금융센터는 국회 정무위가 거제대학 산학협력단의 보고서와 관련하여 산업은행과 금융위의 인지 여부, 인지 시점, 활용 여부와 활용 정도 등에 관해 철저히 조사하여, 만에 하나라도 금융위가 국민을 상대로 신뢰하기 어려운 숫자를 이용하여 대우조선해양에 대한 자금 지원을 압박하는 일이 없도록 할 것을 촉구한다. 

화, 2017/03/21- 15:51
231
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기업형 임대주택은 중산층을 […]
목, 2017/03/23- 15:12
19
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법원 “삼성반도체 보고서 영업비밀” 판결 논란(한겨레)

백혈병 등 산업재해가 발생한 삼성전자 반도체 공장의 안전보건실태를 지적한 정부 보고서를 삼성의 영업비밀이라는 이유로 비공개해야 한다는 법원의 판단이 나왔다. 그러나 이 보고서를 고용노동부는 국회에 이미 제출했고, 대부분 삼성의 잘못을 지적한 내용인 것으로 확인됐다.


아래 주소에서 기사 전문을 확인하실 수 있습니다

출처 http://www.hani.co.kr/arti/society/labor/787457.html

금, 2017/03/24- 10:23
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