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[보고서] 오산시 재정진단 연구용역

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[보고서] 오산시 재정진단 연구용역

admin | 수, 2020/03/11- 01:39

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연구요약 ··········································································································································1

I. 연구 개요 ····································································································································25
1. 연구 개요 ···································································································································25
1) 연구 범위 ···································································································································25
2) 용역 기간 ·································································································································25
2. 연구 배경 ···································································································································26
3. 연구 내용 ···································································································································27

II. 오산시 재정환경 전망 분석 ···································································································28
1. 대내외 경제환경 ·····················································································································28
1) 세계 경제전망 ···························································································································28
2) 국내 경제 상황 ·························································································································31
2. 중앙정부 재정운용방향 ···········································································································33
1) 2020년 중앙정부 정책기조 ·····································································································33
(1) 중앙정부 2020년도 예산 편성 기조 ····················································································33
(3) 2020년 중앙정부 분야별 투자방향 ····················································································50
(4) 분야별 재원 배분 ····················································································································51
2) 지방자치관련 국가정책방향 검토 ·························································································52
(1) 지방자치법 전부개정 ··············································································································52
(2) 재정분권 관련 중장기 지방재정 정책 변화 ····································································53
(3) 재정 집행 강화 및 잉여금 축소 ··························································································54
3) 오산시 재정운용전략에 대한 시사점 ···················································································57
3. 경기도 재정운용방향 ···············································································································58
1) 경기도 민선7기 시정방향 ·······································································································58
(1) 5대 목표 16대 전략 ················································································································58
(2) 경기도 민선7기 공약 실천과제 및 예산 ············································································59
2) 경기도 2020년 예산 편성 방향 ·····························································································60

(1) 경기도 2020년 예산 개요 ······································································································60
(2) 경기도 2020년 예산 특징 ······································································································61
4. 오산시 경제 환경 및 재정운용 전망 ···················································································63
1) 오산시 행정 여건 ·····················································································································63
(1) 기본 현황 ··································································································································63
(2) 주요 시정 지표 ························································································································64
(1) 오산시 재정운용 기본방향 ····································································································73
(2) 주요 분야별 예산 편성 방향 ································································································75
(3) 재원 배분 방향 ························································································································76
3) 세입 여건 전망 ·························································································································77
(1) 세입여건 ····································································································································77
(2) 세입실적 및 세수전망 ············································································································78
(3) 연도별 지방세 부담액 ············································································································78
(4) 2013~2017년 지방세 징수실적 ······························································································79
4) 세출 여건 전망 ·························································································································80
5) 분야별 정책방향 및 투자계획 ·······························································································82

III. 오산시 재정운용 성과진단 ····································································································93
1. 오산시 세입 현황 분석 ···········································································································93
1) 결산상 세입규모 ·······················································································································93
2) 오산시 재정자립도 및 재정자주도 현황 ·············································································96
3) 재원별 세입현황 ·······················································································································99
(1) 재원별 세입 결산 규모 및 비중 추이 ················································································99
(2) 오산시 세목별 수입액 ········································································································100
4) 세입 체납액 현황 분석 ·········································································································102
(1) 타 지자체 대비 오산시 체납액 현황 ··············································································102
(2) 체납 누계액 및 징수 현황 ································································································106
(3) 지방세 체납액 현황 ··············································································································108
(4) 세외수입 체납액 현황 ··········································································································110
(5) 2019년 오산시 세외수입 운영실적 분석·진단 ······························································113
(6) 2018년 오산시 세외수입 운영실적 분석·진단 ······························································116
(7) 세외수입 확충 방안 ··············································································································119

2. 오산시 세출 현황 분석 ·········································································································122
1) 오산시 세출 결산 현황 ·······································································································122
(1) 2018년 오산시 세출결산 규모 ····························································································122
(2) 최근 5년 간 오산시 세출 규모 추이 ················································································123
2) 오산시 일반회계 세출 분야별 분석 ···················································································124
(1) 일반회계 분야별 세출 규모 및 비중 추이 ······································································124
(2) 분야별 세출 예산 편성 적정성 진단 및 조정 방향 ······················································126
(3) 2019년 세출 예산 중 자체예산 비중 ················································································128
(4) 주민 1인당 세출예산액 순위 ······························································································130
3) 특별회계 세출 분석 ···············································································································131
(1) 오산시 2018년 특별회계 규모 및 비중 추이 ··································································131
4) 2018년 오산시 집행 현황 ·····································································································133
(1) 일반회계 집행 현황 ··············································································································133
(2) 특별회계 집행 현황 ··············································································································135
5) 오산시 지역통합재정통계 ·····································································································138

IV. 재정운용지표 분석 ···············································································································139
1. 지방재정분석 ···························································································································139
1) 지방재정분석 개요 ·················································································································139
2) 2019년 오산시 재정분석 결과 ·····························································································141
(1) 오산시 재정분석 결과 개괄 ································································································141
(2) 오산시 재정분석지표 분야별 결과 개요 ··········································································144
(3) 오산시 재정분석 결과 유사단체 비교 ··············································································147
(4) 6개 중요 지표 분석 ············································································································148
3) 지표 상세 분석 ·······················································································································151
(1) 재정건전성 지표 ····················································································································151
(2) 재정효율성 지표 ····················································································································158
2. 세입세출관리지표 분석 ·········································································································174
1) 세입 관리지표 분석 ···············································································································174
(1) 미수납액 분석 ························································································································174
2) 세출 관리지표 분석 ···············································································································176
(1) 오산시 잉여금 현황 ··············································································································176

(2) 오산시 이월액 현황 ··············································································································180
(3) 보조금 반납금 현황 ··············································································································186
(4) 순세계잉여금 현황 ················································································································188
(5) 잉여금 발생의 원인 및 문제점 ··························································································193
(6) 잉여금 해소 방안 ··················································································································196

V. 오산시 세입 확충 전략 ········································································································197
1. 세입 추계 현실화 ···················································································································197
1) 예산상 세입과 결산상 세입 비교 ·····················································································197
(1) 결산상 세입과 예산상 세입 현황 ······················································································197
(2) 2020~2024년 오산시 세입추계 총괄 ················································································199
2. 지방교부세 확보 ·····················································································································200
1) 지방교부세의 개요 ·················································································································200
(1) 지방교부세 개요 ····················································································································200
(2) 지방교부세의 검사 및 시정 ································································································202
(3) 지방교부세의 교부 ················································································································203
2) 보통교부세의 산정 및 교부 ·································································································204
(1) 보통교부세의 산정 ················································································································204
(2) 보통교부세의 교부 ··············································································································205
(3) 최근 3년 간 보통교부세 산정 시 변화된 주요 내용 ····················································207
3) 중앙정부 지방재정 운영 현황 ···························································································209
(1) 2020년 지방재정 운영방향 및 지방재정 운영일정 개편 ··············································209
(2) 2020년 지방교부세 산정방향 ····························································································211
4) 2021년 교부세 산정 방향 및 대응 방안 ···········································································213
(1) 교부세 산정 방향 ··················································································································213
(2) 교부세 확보를 위한 오산시의 대응 방안 ········································································217
3. 국도비 보조사업 현황 분석 및 확보 방안 ·····································································218
1) 오산시 공모 현황 ···················································································································218
2) 오산시 공모사업 대응 전략 ·································································································229
(1) 중앙정부 지방재정운용방향 정책 및 지표 관리 ····························································229
(2) 오산시 사회조사 결과를 통한 시민 수요 반영 ····························································230
(3) 고용노동부 공모사업 현황 ··································································································231

(4) 보건복지부 공모사업 현황 ··································································································234
(5) 문화체육관광부 공모사업 현황 ··························································································242
(6) 경기도 문화관광 공모사업 현황 ························································································250

VI. 오산시 세출 효율화 방안 ···································································································258
1. 이월 및 불용 관리 ·················································································································258
1) 이월 및 불용의 발생 원인 ···································································································258
2) 오산시 집행 및 이월 현황 분석 ·························································································260
3) 이월 및 불용의 문제점 ·········································································································268
4) 이월 및 불용 억제 방안 ·····································································································270
(1) 재정안정화기금 신설 ············································································································270
(2) 결산 과정 강화 ······················································································································275
(3) 계속비 이월 근절 ················································································································275
(4) 재정건전팀 신설 및 예산 조기집행 관리 ········································································275
(5) 통합재정관리시스템 구축 및 활용 ····················································································276
2. 시책일몰제 시행 ·····················································································································280
1) 시책일몰제의 필요성 ·············································································································280
2) 시책일몰제를 시행하는 타 지자체 사례 ···········································································281
3. 재정사업 평가의 내실화 ·······································································································282
4. 세출 자금 집중 관리 ···········································································································283
1) 오산시 세출 자금 집중 관리 방안 ·····················································································283
2) 타 지자체 사례 ·······················································································································283

VII. 건전재정을 위한 재정 운영 기법 및 방향 ····································································284
1. 재정분권 대응 방안 ···············································································································284
1) 지방재정 4대 추진전략 ·········································································································284
2) 재정분권 후속조치 방안 ·······································································································285
2. 건전재정팀 신설 및 운영 ···································································································286
1) 타 지방자치단체의 건전재정팀 운영 사례 ·······································································286
2) 오산시 건전재정팀 도입 및 운영 방안 ·············································································287
3. 기금 및 특별회계 여유재원의 연기금투자풀 위탁 운용 ···············································288
1) 오산시 기금 운용 현황 ·········································································································288

2) 중앙정부의 기금 운용 현황 ·······························································································290
3) 중앙정부 연기금투자풀 위탁 현황 ···················································································291
3) 오산시 여유재원 운용 개선 방안 ·······················································································292
4. 주민참여예산사업 효과성 확대를 위한 현황 분석 방안 ···············································294
1) 사업 분석 및 효과성 평가 시급 ·······················································································294
2) 타 지자체 사례 ·······················································································································295

VIII. 결론 ·······································································································································301
1. 결론 ···········································································································································301
2. 성과 및 한계 ···························································································································301

 

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이슈진단(133) 2015년 10월 노동시장 분석 : 금융위기 이후 한국 노동시장의 변화

2015년 10월 주요 고용동향

▣ 고용률, 실업률, 경제활동참가율

 

– 2015년 9월 고용률은 60.9%로 전년동월과 동일
– 실업률은 3.1%로 전년동월대비 0.1%p 하락
– 경제활동참가율은 62.9%로 전년동월과 동일
– 전년동월과 비슷한 수준의 고용지표 유지.
금융위기 이후 개선되는 양상을 보이던 고용지표가 최근 주춤하는 양상을 보이고 있음
– 이러한 양상은 상대적으로 새로운 일자리의 창출 속도가 느려졌음을 의미함.
경제성장률 정체가 계속되고, 경제적 불확실성이 해소되지 않는다면 이전과 같은 고용지표 개선이 이어지기 어려울 수 있음

 

1

 

 

– 기업의 투자고용 확대 폭이 일정 수준에 머무를 경우 소비 진작을 통해 유효수요를 창출하는 방안을 고려할 필요가 있음
– 성별로 구분해 보았을 때 2015년 들어 노동시장 내 특성 중 하나는 여성 고용률 상승이 이어지는 반면,
남성 고용률은 줄어드는 경향을 보인다는 점임. 최근 전년동월과의 비교에서 이러한 경향이 계속되고 있음

– 2015년 10월 현재 여성 고용률은 50.8%로 전년동월대비 0.4%p 상승함.
남성 고용률은 71.5%로 여성보다 20%p 이상 높은 수준을 유지하고 있지만 전년동월대비 0.3%p 하락한 것으로 나타남

 

2

 

▣ 취업자

– 취업자는 2,629만 8천 명으로 전년동월대비 34만 8천 명 증가함

– 산업별로 구분해 보면 전년동월대비 제조업(19만 1천 명), 사업시설과리 및 사업지원서비스업(10만 4천 명),
출판, 영상, 방송통신 및 정보서비스업(7만 9천 명), 보건업 및 사회복지 서비스업(6만 2천 명), 숙박 및 음식점업(5만 명)
등에서는 취업자가 증가한 반면, 농업, 임업 및 어업(-12만 4천 명), 도매 및 소매업(-9만 2천 명),
금융 및 보험업(-2만 7천 명), 건설업(-2만 7천 명) 등에서는 취업자가 감소함

– 제조업 취업자 수는 455만 2천 명으로 전년동월대비 19만 1천 명 증가함.
제조업은 가장 많은 취업자가 증가한 산업으로, 2015년 들어 큰 폭의 취업자 증가세를 유지하고 있음

– 보건업 및 사회복지 서비스업의 취업자 수 증가폭은 메르스 사건 이후 상대적으로 축소된 것으로 나타남.
2015년 10월 현재 보건업 및 사회복지 서비스업 취업자 수는 182만 2천 명으로 전년동월대비 6만 2천 명 증가함.
메르스 이전과 비교할 경우 취업자 증가속도는 여전히 유지하고 있지만, 증가폭은 줄어들었음을 확인할 수 있음

– 2015년 들어 산업별로 보았을 때 제조업이 취업자 증가를 견인하고 있음

 

3

 

– 숙박 및 음식점업의 취업자 수는 219만 5천 명으로 전년동월대비 5만 명 증가함.
최근 숙박 및 음식점업의 취업자 수 증가가 계속되고 있음.
숙박 및 음식점 일자리 중 상당수는 비정규직, 저임금 일자리임.
최근 늘어나고 있는 숙박 및 음식점업 일자리의 질적 수준에 관심을 가질 필요가 있음

– 농업임업 및 어업은 취업자 감소세가 계속되고 있음.
농업, 임업 및 어업의 취업자 수는 148만 4천 명으로 전년동월대비 12만 4천 명 감소함

– 특히 최근 농업, 임업 및 어업의 취업자 수가 빠르게 감소한 것으로 나타나고 있는데,
이는 산업 구조 및 정부 산업 정책의 변화와 함께 최근 진행되고 있는 무역협정들과 관련된 것으로 생각됨

– 금융 및 보험업 역시 취업자가 계속해서 감소하고 있음.
2015년 10월 현재 금융 및 보험업 취업자 수는 79만 명으로 전년동월대비 2만 7천 명 감소함

– 2013년 이후 금융 및 보험업의 취업자 수가 감소하고 있는 것으로 확인되고 있는데,
이는 해당 산업 내 인력 구조 조정의 결과로 보임

 

* 표와 그림을 포함한 보고서 전문을 보시려면 아래의 ‘연구보고서 다운 받기’ 배너를 클릭해주세요.
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이슈진단(125) 신용보증 정책의 효과 : 경제활성화? 부채증가?

농업신용보증정책

신용보증은 담보력이 미약하여 융자를 활용할 수 없는 경제적 약자에게 신용보증서를 발급하여 금융기관 등으로부터 원활하게 자금을 지원받을 수 있도록 하는 특수한 금융제도이다. 이를 통해 현재는 경제적 약자이나 다소의 융자를 통해 지속가능한 경제적 활동을 할 수 있는 잠재력을 지니고 있는 가계나 경제주체의 자립을 돕는 것이 정책의 근본 취지이다.

신용보증의 유형은 유럽식 상호보증제도, 아시아식 공공기관 보증제도, 미주식 융자보증제도 등으로 나누어 볼 수 있으며, 우리나라의 경우 공공기관 보증제도를 채택하고 있다. 이 보고서에서 검토하고자 하는 농업신용보증은 1971년 제정된 ‘농림수산업자신용보증법’에 따라 ‘농림수산업자신용보증기금(이하 농신보)’이 설치되면서 도입되었다.

농업신용보증의 절차는 융자수요자(농업인)가 융자취급기관(농협 등)에 대출상담을 하면, 융자취급기관이 농신보에 신용보증을 의뢰하고, 농신보는 일반적인 신용조사를 끝낸 뒤 보증서를 발급하여 융자취급기관에 전달하면, 융자취급기관이 이를 근거로 대출을 실행하는 구조로 되어 있다.

 

그림1

 

따라서 농업신용보증은 크게 두 가지의 파급효과를 불러온다. 첫째, 신용보증 과정에서 농신보에 소정의 수수료 수입이 발생하고 융자취급기관에서는 대출이자 수입이 발생한다. 즉 이에 상당하는 경제적 수요가 금융부문에 발생한 것이다. 둘째, 농업인에게 대출금이 지급되면 이를 바탕으로 경제활동을 수행하게 될 것이다. 종자, 농자재, 농기구용 연료를 구매하고 인근 음식점에서 끼니를 해결하는 등의 활동이 이루어진다. 즉 전산업부문에 걸쳐서 수요가 발생하는 것이다. 이 보고서에서는 이 두 가지 수요의 발생과 이에 따른 경제파급효과(산업연관효과)의 규모를 검토하였다.

 

그림2

농업인 100가구에 1억 원씩(총 100억 원)을 보증한다면?

농업인 100가구에 1억 원씩 총 100억 원을 신용보증할 경우 경제파급효과는 얼마나 될까? 우선 보증수수료를 1%로 잡을 경우 농신보의 수수료 매출 1억 원이 발생한다. 또 대출이자를 3%로 잡을 경우 대출을 취급하는 금융기관의 대출이자 매출 3억 원이 발생한다. 즉 총 4억 원의 수요가 금융부문에서 발생한다. 또한 농업인들이 대출을 받고 이를 활용하여 농업활동을 함에 따른 산업부문별 수요가 발생한다. 이는 대출금(보증액)에 산업연관표상 투입계수를 곱한 것과 같다고 가정할 수 있다.

 

표1

 

한국은행에서 발표한 2013년 산업연관표의 금융부문 생산유발계수를 적용할 경우 금융부문 수요 4억 원에 따른 생산유발효과는 약 7억 원에 달한다.(표 3) 한편 대출금(농업자금)을 받은 농업인의 경제활동에 따른 산업부문별 수요(2차수요)를 산업연관표의 농업부문 투입계수를 활용하여 집계하면 약 40억 원이며 이에 따른 생산유발효과를 추계하면 약 80억 원 정도이다.(표 4) 즉 100억 원 규모의 신용보증에 따라 경제 전체적으로 87억 원 정도의 생산유발이 발생한다고 볼 수 있다.

한편 이러한 경제파급효과에 따른 취업 및 고용유발을 살펴보면, 취업은 약 68인, 고용은 약 28인 정도 발생할 것으로 추정된다. 즉, 농업인 100가구에 농업자금을 1억 원씩 보증할 경우 1가구 지원 당(또는 1억 원 지원 당) 0.68인의 취업, 0.28인의 고용이 새롭게 발생할 수 있는 것이다.

 

표2

 

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